by The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, recently published in The Lancet, projects a significant increase in global life expectancy over the next three decades. The study reveals that men’s life expectancy is projected to rise by 4.9 years, while women’s life expectancy is expected to increase by 4.2 years, between 2022 and 2050.
Countries with lower life expectancy are anticipated to witness the most substantial gains, contributing to a narrowing gap in life expectancy across various geographies. This trend is primarily attributed to public health initiatives that have led to a decrease in mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and a range of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs).
The ongoing transition in disease burden towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes, and the associated risk factors, including obesity, high blood pressure, non-optimal diet, and smoking, are expected to have the most significant impact on the health burden of future generations.
As the disease burden shifts from CMNNs to NCDs and from years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLDs), more individuals are projected to live longer, albeit with a greater number of years spent in less-than-optimal health. The study forecasts that global life expectancy will rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050, representing a 4.5-year increase.
